Monday, August 18, 2014

Emmy Predictions 2014: Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Miniseries or Movie

The nominations are in for the 2014 Primetime Emmy Awards. Over the next few weeks, I'll be going through several of the major categories and offer my predictions on who will win this year. Next up, Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Miniseries or Movie.

The nominees are: The Normal Heart's Matt Bomer, Joe Mantello, Alfred Molina & Jim Parsons; Sherlock: His Last Vow's Martin Freeman; and Fargo's Colin Hanks.

1. MATT BOMER - THE NORMAL HEART (HBO)

With performances from the historic HBO movie making up two thirds of the ballot, it seems very likely that one of them will win. The person best poised to take it for The Normal Heart is Matt Bomer because voters love this kind of transformative story. Production stopped halfway through just so Bomer could lose weight to better his portrayal of a gay man suffering from HIV/AIDS. How could voters not respond so positively to such commitment to a big passion project throughout the entertainment community?

2. JIM PARSONS - THE NORMAL HEART (HBO)

If Bomer doesn't win, the next best Normal Heart co-star would be Parsons simply because voters love him. He'll likely win again in the Lead Comedy Actor field and it's always impressive whenever an actor wins in two different categories in the same year.

3. COLIN HANKS - FARGO (FX)

The problem with so many nominees coming from the same movie is that vote-splitting could occur. Voters may have too many options for The Normal Heart in this field. Will they reach a consensus on which among them is most deserving of the win? The person who'll likely benefit from that uncertainty the most is Colin Hanks who was also phenomenal throughout the adaptation of the Coen Brothers movie. It's a very passive but incredibly important role to the narrative of the widely successful miniseries.

4. JOE MANTELLO - THE NORMAL HEART (HBO)

Mantello is a Tony nominee for the stage version of The Normal Heart who made the transition to the HBO movie. That's another story voters could easily get behind.

6. MARTIN FREEMAN - SHERLOCK: HIS LAST VOW (PBS)

I don't wanna count Freeman out of this race. Sherlock surprisingly picked up a number of technical Emmys last Saturday. He could greatly benefit from vote-splitting for The Normal Heart as well. Anything can happen in this race which is why it's one of the more exciting fields this year.

5. ALFRED MOLINA - THE NORMAL HEART (HBO)

I believe if someone wins for The Normal Heart it will be one of his co-stars. Molina has name recognition too. So, he's a major contender in this race. I just don't think it's likely.