Friday, August 19, 2016

Emmy Predictions 2016 - Who Will Likely Win for Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or TV Movie?

The nominations are in for The 68th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards. The final round of voting is now taking place. So now, it's time to speculate on who is likely to win in each major category. Next up for analysis is Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie.

The Nominees:
  • Kathy Bates for FX's American Horror Story: Hotel - Episode "Battle Royale"
  • Olivia Colman for AMC's The Night Manager - Episode "Episode 6"
  • Regina King for ABC's American Crime - Episode "Episode Eight"
  • Melissa Leo for HBO's All the Way
  • Sarah Paulson for FX's American Horror Story: Hotel - Episode "The Ten Commandments Killer"
  • Jean Smart for FX's Fargo - Episode "Fear and Trembling"

Last year, Sarah Paulson seemed like a lock to finally win an Emmy for her performance as a two-headed woman on American Horror Story. It was a surprising upset when American Crime's Regina King ultimately won - though she was really deserving as well. And now, it's time for the rematch. Both Paulson and King are back this year playing completely different characters on their respective shows. More important than that, Paulson delivered one of the most notable performances of the year. The problem is that performance was on The People v. O.J. Simpson. She filmed American Horror Story: Hotel simultaneously with that show. That grueling schedule seemed to help in some phenomenal ways in her portrayal of Marcia Clark. But her work on AHS wasn't completely lost in the shuffle either. Voters still remembered her in this category. As a double acting nominee, it seems likely that she'll win this year. It would just be so disappointing if it wasn't for The People v. O.J. Simpson.

King could be a serious contender for a repeat win as well. It was surprising when she won last year. But no one could really argue against her victory. She's such a respected actress and director with a career of really interesting and awesome work. It's great that she finally received some accolades for her career. The same will still hold true this year if she's victorious as well. It's not what I'm ultimately predicting to happen. But she can't be discredited in this race either. At times, her character, Terry, was pretty abrasive and off-putting. It's a type of role that audiences don't get to see a whole lot. But it was still pretty compelling. Of course, she wasn't really the focus of the second season either. That instead fell on the young leads of the show - who sadly got snubbed in the Emmy races this year. Anyway, a King win is something that can still happen.

In fact, there are a number of ways this race can go. There isn't any performer from The People v. O.J. Simpson. The FX anthology series completely dominated the limited categories this year. This is the one field where it was shut out. So that means it won't be a clean sweep for it come September. That's a good thing too. It's great that voters will reward a wide array of talent and shows throughout the night. Otherwise it can seem monotonous. This could be the category where Fargo actually prevails. Jean Smart has a pretty good episode submission as well as a proven track record with the voters. Sometimes all it takes is a previous Emmy win for a nominee to move into the frontrunner status. Of course, many of the women in this field are previous winners. Kathy Bates, Regina King, Jean Smart and Melissa Leo all have Emmys already. Voters like to reward the same people over and over again. So they all have solid shots for victory. Or voters could gravitate to the people who don't have any Emmys yet. With Paulson having a serious shot in Lead Actress, that means Olivia Colman could win here. She has been such a beloved and consistently great actress for awhile now. She was easily the best part of The Night Manager. A victory for her would be something I would like seeing. Though it does still feel like a considerable long shot.

Should Win: Olivia Colman
Will Win: Jean Smart
Dark Horse: Regina King