Friday, September 16, 2016

Emmy Predictions 2016 - Which Program Will Likely Win for Outstanding Drama Series?

The nominations are in for The 68th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards. The final round of voting has occurred. So now, it's time to speculate on who is likely to win in each major category. Next up for analysis is Outstanding Drama Series.

The Nominees:
  • FX's The Americans
  • AMC's Better Call Saul
  • PBS' Downton Abbey
  • HBO's Game of Thrones
  • Showtime's Homeland
  • Netflix's House of Cards
  • USA's Mr. Robot

After winning nine awards at the Creative Arts Emmys last Saturday night, it seems likely that Game of Thrones will be a repeat winner for Best Drama Series. The changes to the voting system have been really good for the fantasy epic. It has made the final round of voting much more of a popularity contest. Considering Game of Thrones is one of the hugest shows currently on television, it's not surprising that it's doing so well. It's not undeserving of these awards either. It boasts some strong technical achievement. But does that make it worthy of being awarded Best Drama Series? I don't know. Again, it's something that feels like it will happen. The reviews for the season nominated were much more positive than they have been in the past. I don't think many people will be disappointed if Game of Thrones wins in this category again. However, there are a couple more deserving shows where the victory would be even better.

This was the best season of The Americans so far. The period drama just keeps getting better with every season. It's a stunning achievement really. For years though, the Emmys completely ignored it. They recognized Margo Martindale - a two-time winner for the show - but very little else. This year though, the show and the two lead actors broke into the major races. That was such a delightful but really earned surprise on nomination morning. If the voters are purely looking on the quality of the material, it would be hard to argue against The Americans winning. And yet, it's not clear if the voters are even looking at the material. It's great that Martindale has three Emmy Awards. But two of those came from such a brief amount of actual screen time. There was no explanation for her victories these past two years other than voters loving her and not really looking at the episodes. It means The Americans is an Emmy-winning series. No one can take that away. But it would be much better if it were to win for Best Drama. It just seems like an uphill battle though.

Meanwhile, there is the great unknown that is Mr. Robot. It's a first year show that broke into this race. That's always impressive whenever it happens. Because it is unproven at the Emmys, it could be the true wild card in this race. It had a pretty acclaimed first season. Plus, the conversation about the show has continued throughout the voting period. It was airing its second season while the final round of voting was taking place. That can't be discredited as a potential reason for its victory. It broke into a couple of categories and has strong odds of winning in all of them. If Rami Malek and Sam Esmail win, it could be the type of momentum that leads to a victory here. That's something that could very easily happen.

The winner for Best Drama is going to be one of those three shows. It would be a surprise if any of the other contenders won. In fact, should House of Cards, Downton Abbey or Homeland prevail, it could create a lot of outrage. Those shows really didn't deserve to be nominated in this category. They are perennial favorites amongst the voters for some reason though. So, they continually get in and we have to take them seriously as contenders. Something strange could happen. The voters could think House of Cards is due for a victory. Downton Abbey could be rewarded for ending its run. Homeland could win because everyone said this season was better. Strange things have happened in a number of categories this year. So they have to be viewed as contenders - whether we like it or not.

Should Win: The Americans
Will Win: Game of Thrones
Dark Horse: Mr. Robot