Wednesday, September 7, 2016

Emmy Predictions 2016 - Who Will Likely Win for Guest Actress in a Comedy Series?

The nominations are in for The 68th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards. The final round of voting has occurred. So now, it's time to speculate on who is likely to win in each major category. Next up for analysis is Guest Actress in a Comedy Series.

The Nominees:
  • Christine Baranski for CBS' The Big Bang Theory - Episode: "The Convergence Convergence"
  • Tina Fey and Amy Poehler for NBC's Saturday Night Live - Episode: "Host: Tina Fey & Amy Poehler"
  • Melora Hardin for Amazon's Transparent - Episode: "Flicky-Flicky Thump-Thump"
  • Melissa McCarthy for NBC's Saturday Night Live - Episode: Host: Melissa McCarthy"
  • Laurie Metcalf for CBS' The Big Bang Theory - Episode: "The Convergence Convergence"
  • Amy Schumer for NBC's Saturday Night Live - Episode: "Host: Amy Schumer"

Amy Poehler has never won an Emmy. That's almost unbelievable. She never won for her great work as Leslie Knope on NBC's Parks and Recreation. Julia Louis-Dreyfus monopolized the Emmy race for Lead Actress in a Comedy. It was hard to argue with that because she's so wonderful on Veep. But Poehler deserved a win there at least once over the years. And yet, it never happened. But now, it might thanks to Saturday Night Live and Tina Fey. The guest acting races have frequently been where the late night sketch comedy series can shine. More importantly, Tina Fey won here back in 2009 for playing Sarah Palin on the comedy. She's an Emmy favorite who actually wins. Poehler is an Emmy favorite who just gets nominated. But because they are nominated together, perhaps Poehler can finally have an Emmy and be a winner too. Plus, their episode saw both reprising their roles as Palin and Hillary Clinton. That makes their appearances more topical and thus more deserving of a win.

However, Fey and Poehler have some tough competition. They aren't the only ladies nominated for hosting Saturday Night Live. Amy Schumer and Melissa McCarthy got in as well. They are Emmy favorites too. They are in-demand actresses as well who boast successful and rising movie careers. That's always been a winning formula for victory especially in the guest acting categories. So, it would not be surprising if one of them stole the win away from Fey and Poehler. They have the episodes to do it as well. Both Schumer and McCarthy had a fun time hosting the show and were given some very funny material. So, this ultimately feels like a race to decide who was the best host of Saturday Night Live this year.

Meanwhile, Christine Baranski and Laurie Metcalf both snuck in for The Big Bang Theory. Baranski may have fallen out of the Supporting Drama field for The Good Wife. But this nomination ensures she'll still be at the ceremony. Meanwhile, Metcalf is a triple acting nominee and will likely win in at least one of those races. However, it may prove difficult for either of them to be victorious here because they are both nominated for the same episode. So, vote splitting may occur because the voters can't agree on which actress to back in this race.

And lastly, there's Melora Hardin who feels like the outlier in this race. She's not a big name or an Emmy favorite. This is her first Emmy nomination ever. It's for some terrific work on Transparent. Her nomination could signal going support for the show elsewhere on the ballot. And yet, she could be a contender in this race too. We can't just discount here because she's going up against some colossal competition. The last three winners in this category have gone to dramatic actresses on shows labeled as comedies for Emmy consideration - Melissa Leo for Louie, Uzo Aduba for Orange Is the New Black and Joan Cusack for Shameless. It's been awhile since a true comedy has won in this race. The metrics for determining what a comedy is are constantly in flux. It's great that this category gets that. But in the race this year, Hardin is the only one with dramatic material. It may single her out even more. Perhaps enough to even win.

Should Win: Tina Fey & Amy Poehler
Will Win: Tina Fey & Amy Poehler
Dark Horse: Amy Schumer