Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Emmy Predictions 2016 - Who Will Likely Win for Lead Actress in a Comedy Series?

The nominations are in for The 68th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards. The final round of voting has occurred. So now, it's time to speculate on who is likely to win in each major category. Next up for analysis is Lead Actress in a Comedy Series.

The Nominees:
  • Ellie Kemper for Netflix's Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt - Episode: "Kimmy Goes to a Hotel!"
  • Julia Louis-Dreyfus for HBO's Veep - Episode: "Mother"
  • Laurie Metcalf for HBO's Getting On - Episode: "Am I Still Me?"
  • Tracee Ellis Ross for ABC's black-ish - Episode: "Sink or Swim"
  • Amy Schumer for Comedy Central's Inside Amy Schumer - Episode: "Welcome to the Gun Show"
  • Lily Tomlin for Netflix's Grace and Frankie - Episode: "The Test"

This could be a historic win for Julia Louis-Dreyfus should she prevail in this category yet again. A win would give her 6 trophies in Lead Actress in a Comedy Series. That's more than any other person in the history of the category. Right now, she's tied with Candice Bergen and Mary Tyler Moore. All she needs is one more to pull ahead. It's hard to bet against her too. She has a fantastic submission episode. There was extreme worry heading into this season of Veep that the quality would dip with a new writing team. And yet, the show proved that it was better than ever before. Louis-Dreyfus had so much great material all season long. "Mother" makes her a formidable four-time reigning champion in this category. So many wins could get annoying and boring after awhile. But Louis-Dreyfus keeps doing so much great work that she may just win this award until the show is over with.

The strongest competition may, surprisingly come from Laurie Metcalf. This is a pretty epic rematch from the early 1990s supporting field. For three years, Metcalf and Louis-Dreyfus faced off for their roles on Roseanne and Seinfeld, respectively. All three of those years, Metcalf emerged victorious. And now, they have been nominated yet again in the same category. So, a win for Metcalf could be a pretty interesting story on Emmy night. The voters clearly still have so much love for her. She didn't win in either of the guest acting categories over the weekend. That's such a shame. So now, this category is her last chance for victory in this busy, successful year. Getting On is a much smaller show than Veep in terms of HBO admiration amongst the voters. But it has kept adding to its nomination tally over the years. So now, it may actually pull off a win.

Tracee Ellis Ross and Ellie Kemper have some strong odds of winning as well. Both are first time nominees at the Emmys. Both of their shows had stronger second seasons and are facing off in Best Comedy Series too. Both were snubbed last year. So it was a major celebration when they both got in this year. They could be seen as the rising newcomers. The people that the voters need to recognize in order to prove they saw a couple of great performances this year. And yet, Louis-Dreyfus may still have too good of a submission. Ross and Kemper had a couple of episodes to choose from this year as well. I'm just not sure if they picked the right ones. Their episodes aren't bad at all. They are both strong. A win for either of them would be so deserved. It may just be a bit more of an uphill battle for them to take down the four-time reigning champion. However, that's something that I could easily see happen for Metcalf, Ross or Kemper. I don't really think the award will ultimately go to either Amy Schumer or Lily Tomlin.

Should Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus
Will Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus
Dark Horse: Tracee Ellis Ross