Friday, September 9, 2016

Emmy Predictions 2016 - Who Will Likely Win for Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series?

The nominations are in for The 68th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards. The final round of voting has occurred. So now, it's time to speculate on who is likely to win in each major category. Next up for analysis is Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series.

The Nominees:
  • Anna Chlunsky for HBO's Veep - Episode: "C**tgate"
  • Gaby Hoffman for Amazon's Transparent - Episode: "Bulnerable"
  • Allison Janney for CBS' Mom - Episode: "Terrorists and Gingerbread"
  • Judith Light for Amazon's Transparent - Episode: "Flicky-Flicky Thump-Thump"
  • Kate McKinnon for NBC's Saturday Night Live - Episode: "Host: Ariana Grande"
  • Niecy Nash for HBO's Getting On - Episode: "Don't Let It Get in You or on You"

For its first two seasons, Mom only got nominated for Allison Janney. She ultimately won both of those years. But it was still the only nomination the show got. This year though the show has actually picked up a couple more technical nominations. That shows some stronger support. Perhaps not enough to sway any of the races in one direction or another. But it's still an important note to make for a show that really deserves as much love as possible. Janney is clearly beloved by Emmy voters. She's the sole nomination for Masters of Sex (in Guest Drama Actress) despite a horrific season. With Mom, it's such a phenomenal role for her. One could argue if she belongs in the supporting category considering she's more like a co-lead. But this is where she has been nominated. For the first two seasons, she chose lighter episodes of the show as her submission. Mom tackles dark and serious subject matter. But there are certainly darker and more emotional episodes than others. Janney liked showing off her physical comedy bits to Emmy voters. This year though she has gone in the opposite direction. She chose the season premiere which features a very emotional confrontation with her character's mother (played by Ellen Burstyn, who really deserved a guest nomination). It's a terrific episode. Janney would deserve a third win in a row for this role. It's just a somewhat different strategy than the past.

Plus, Janney has some strong competition from the two Transparent ladies. The second season was great for both Gaby Hoffman and Judith Light. Hoffman got in a year ago for this role while Light managed to break in this year. Overall, the second season got more support this year in the key races. Plus, Light and Hoffman have the benefit of being seen in two episodes this year and not just their own submissions. "Flicky-Flicky Thump Thump" provides Light's best acting moment on the show so far. Meanwhile, Hoffman had a solid season overall with an engaging and significant story. It wasn't one that could be simply defined to one showcase episode though. So, the two episodes definitely help her stand out. But realistically, either of them could easily be the winner here if for some reason Janney doesn't win.

Like in so many other races, the rest of the field boasts strong competition as well. Overall, almost every category at the Emmys this year has five or six nominees that would deserve to win. Or at least the rationale could be explained. That's great. It would be awesome if Anna Chlumsky, Kate McKinnon or Niecy Nash prevailed in this race. It would be slightly surprising. But they all have legitimate shots at doing it. Veep is the most nominated comedy this year. So, that helps Chlumsky as well as having a hilarious showcase episode. McKinnon has been rising in popularity every year. And now, her Hillary Clinton impression is more topical and important than ever before. And lastly, Nash has the kind of career that needs to be recognized with an Emmy win at some point (not just a daytime Emmy either). It was an odd but delightful surprise to see her nominated last year. And now, it's clear that Getting On has even more support amongst the voters than it initially seemed. So basically, everyone in this category has a shot at winning. Janney still seems like the clear frontrunner but it's not a lock for her.

Should Win: Gaby Hoffmann
Will Win: Allison Janney
Dark Horse: Kate McKinnon