Emmy Predictions 2019 - Who Will Likely Be Nominated for Lead Actor in a Limited Series or TV Movie?

From June 10 to June 24, 2019, voting took place for The 71st Annual Primetime Emmy Awards. As such, it's fun to look at which actors and shows have the best chances of actually being nominated this year. So, here is how I see the race for Lead Actor in a Limited Series or TV Movie.

2018 Nominees:

        Antonio Banderas for National Geographic's Genius: Picasso
        Darren Criss for FX's The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story (WINNER)
        Benedict Cumberbatch for Showtime's Patrick Melrose
        Jeff Daniels for Hulu's The Looming Tower
        John Legend for NBC's Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert
        Jesse Plemons for Netflix's Black Mirror: USS Callister

I actually feel relatively strong about my six picks for the nominees in this category. I don't feel that way about most of these races. My predictions are never completely accurate. And yet, I have a strong feeling that this year's race may be easy to predict. Sure, it will be competitive to see who ultimately wins. That will be very exciting. Right now though, it's easy to see how Mahershala Ali, Sam Rockwell, Hugh Grant and Benicio Del Toro get in based on name recognition, being awards darlings, delivering strong performances and starring in shows destined to get numerous nominations apiece. Meanwhile, Jared Harris and Jharrel Jerome seem like they will benefit from recency bias. HBO's Chernobyl and Netflix's When They See Us will likely have played the most recently in the minds of the voters as well as catching on with the public at large. Sure, there are absolutely some spoilers in the second tier of candidates who could manage a surprise. The Deadwood movie could be celebrated here with its leading men. Anthony Hopkins, Benedict Cumberbatch and Peter Dinklage have solid track records at the Emmys as well. But I still think the six top picks are the ones that everyone would be wise to predict in this category.

So now, here are the actors most likely to be nominated:

1. Mahershala Ali for HBO's True Detective
2. Sam Rockwell for FX's Fosse/Verdon
3. Hugh Grant for Amazon's A Very English Scandal
4. Benicio Del Toro for Showtime's Escape at Dannemora
5. Jared Harris for HBO's Chernobyl
6. Jharrel Jerome for Netflix's When They See Us

Next are some serious threats that could break into the list:

1. Ian McShane and Timothy Olyphant for HBO's Deadwood: The Movie
2. Anthony Hopkins for Amazon's King Lear
3. Benedict Cumberbatch for HBO's Brexit
4. Christopher Abbott for Hulu's Catch-22
5. Jonah Hill for Netflix's Maniac
6. Woody Harrelson and Jamie Foxx for ABC's Live in Front of a Studio Audience: All in the Family and The Jeffersons
7. Michael Sheen and David Tennant for Amazon's Good Omens
8. Peter Dinklage for HBO's My Dinner with Hervé

Here are some considerable long-shots:

1. Eric Bana for Bravo's Dirty John
2. Fionn Whitehead for Netflix's Black Mirror: Bandersnatch
3. Alexander Skarsgård and Michael Shannon for AMC's The Little Drummer Girl
4. Dominic West for PBS' Les Misérables
5. Henry Thomas for Netflix's The Haunting of Hill House
6. Jordan Fisher and Brennin Hunt for FOX's Rent Live
7. André Holland for Hulu's Castle Rock
8. Chris Pine for TNT's I Am the Night
9. Daniel Radcliffe for TBS' Miracle Workers

And finally, just some colorful oddities who still have an outside chance:

1. John Malkovich for Amazon's The ABC Murders
2. Ashton Sanders for HBO's Native Son
3. Jeffrey Wright for HBO's O.G.
4. Aaron Eckhart for Amazon's The Romanoffs
5. Iain Glen for PBS' Mrs. Wilson
6. Bill Nighy for Amazon's Ordeal by Innocence
7. James Wolk for CBS All Access' Tell Me a Story

What do you think? Do you agree or disagree with my choices? Let me know in the comments below!