Friday, September 6, 2019

Emmy Predictions 2019 - Who Will and Should Win for Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie?

The nominations have been announced for The 71st Annual Primetime Emmy Awards. So now, it's time to speculate on who will and should win in each major category. Next up for analysis is Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie.

The Nominees Ranked By Which Should Win:
  1. Michelle Williams for FX's Fosse/Verdon
  2. Amy Adams for HBO's Sharp Objects
  3. Patricia Arquette for Showtime's Escape at Dannemora
  4. Joey King for Hulu's The Act
  5. Niecy Nash for Netflix's When They See Us
  6. Aunjanue Ellis for Netflix's When They See Us

There were some truly transformational performances that occurred in this category this year. Patricia Arquette was almost unrecognizable as an employee at a secure prison. Amy Adams embraced one of the darkest and disturbing roles of her already stellar career. Michelle Williams played a Broadway icon through the numerous ups and downs of her life onstage and off. And Joey King broke out in such a major and moving way also acting opposite Arquette in another disturbing tale. I may sound like a broken record at this point but the acting in When They See Us was top notch amongst all of the performers. Niecy Nash and Aunjanue Ellis were no exceptions as two mothers trying their best to fight for their children after they had been accused of a horrifying crime they did not commit. It's hard to go wrong with any of the nominees in this category. Williams may just have the slight edge simply because of the physical demands of her performance. She essentially played Gwen Verdon at all ages of her professional career. So, she had to be just as adept at playing the big dance numbers as well as the tragedy of her body no longer being able to perform the same way later in life. Every part of it was so tremendous. But again, Arquette and Adams were equally great as two women searching for purpose in their lives. They just embarked on those journeys in ways that were so personally destructive to so many people including themselves. And King was so strong as a small, naive woman abused by her mother and whose reactions to everything in life where forever altered as a result.

The Nominees Ranked by Which Will Win:
  1. Patricia Arquette for Showtime's Escape at Dannemora
  2. Michelle Williams for FX's Fosse/Verdon
  3. Amy Adams for HBO's Sharp Objects
  4. Niecy Nash for Netflix's When They See Us
  5. Aunjanue Ellis for Netflix's When They See Us
  6. Joey King for Hulu's The Act

This has long been seen as one of the most competitive races at the Emmys this year solely because of the career peaks Patricia Arquette, Michelle Williams and Amy Adams continued to hit. All of them would be deserving winners. Their roles would each be enough to be considered frontrunners. It's unfortunate that they are competing against each other though. As such, any outcome is completely reasonable. Arquette did triumph over Adams at the Golden Globes. That may not necessarily mean anything because Golden Globes voters don't normally match up with Emmy voters. Plus, it was a dramatically different race because The Act, Fosse/Verdon and When They See Us hadn't even aired yet. That may mean the momentum isn't there to give the trophy to either Arquette or Adams. Recency bias could propel Williams to victory. These are all factors that have to be taken seriously when projecting the odds of this category. All three of them are awards darlings. None of them have won nearly as much as they have deserved in their impressive careers. Arquette may have a stronger track record at the Emmys because she previously won with Medium and is also nominated this year for her supporting work on The Act. But that may just mean the voters have to decide which of the two shows she deserves to win for the most. Both categories are completely competitive. Williams and Adams may not have that uncertainty. They get to exist purely as themselves in this particular category. But again, it really could go any way at this point. It's more than likely one of those three as well. The remaining nominees seem like considerable long shots. If they won, then it would be seen as one of the bigger upsets of the night. It may not be unreasonable especially with the overall love for When They See Us. It's just unlikely. Plus, that probably would not spread the wealth for the many tremendous performances that happened this year in limited series.

What do you think? Do you agree or disagree with my predictions? Let me know in the comments below!