Emmy Predictions 2022 - Who Will Likely Be Nominated for Lead Actor in a Drama Series?

From June 16-27, 2022, voting is taking place for The 74th Primetime Emmy Awards. As such, it's fun to look at which actors and shows have the best chances of actually being nominated this year. So, these are my predictions for which performers will be nominated for Lead Actor in a Drama Series.

Performers most likely to be nominated:

1. Jeremy Strong for HBO's Succession
2. Brian Cox for HBO's Succession
3. Lee Jung-jae for Netflix's Squid Game
4. Jason Bateman for Netflix's Ozark
5. Bob Odenkirk for AMC's Better Call Saul
6. Sterling K. Brown for NBC's This Is Us

Serious threats who could break through:

1. Kevin Costner for Paramount Network's Yellowstone
2. Adam Scott for AppleTV+'s Severance
3. John C. Reilly and Quincy Isaiah for HBO's Winning Time: The Rise of the Lakers Dynasty
4. Milo Ventimiglia for NBC's This Is Us
5. Gary Oldman for AppleTV+'s Slow Horses
6. Courtney B. Vance for AMC's 61st Street
7. Jonathan Bailey for Netflix's Bridgerton
8. Minho Lee and Jin Ha for AppleTV+'s Pachinko
9. Chiwetel Ejiofor for Showtime's The Man Who Fell to Earth
10. Tom Hiddleston for Disney+'s Loki
11. Jeremy Renner for Paramount+'s Mayor of Kingstown
12. J.K. Simmons for Amazon's Night Sky

Some considerable long-shots:

1. Michael C. Hall for Showtime's Dexter: New Blood
2. Jeff Daniels for Showtime's American Rust
3. Morgan Spector for HBO's The Gilded Age
4. Josh Brolin for Amazon's Outer Range
5. Mike Colter for Paramount+'s Evil
6. Manuel Garcia-Rulfo for Netflix's The Lincoln Lawyer
7. O'Shea Jackson Jr. for AppleTV+'s Swagger
8. Temuera Morrison for Disney+'s The Book of Boba Fett
9. Jabari Banks for Peacock's Bel-Air
10. Penn Badgley for Netflix's You
11. Ansel Elgort for HBO Max's Tokyo Vice
12. Stephen Amell and Alexander Ludwig for Starz's Heels

Colorful oddities who still have an outside chance:

1. Anthony Anderson and Hugh Dancy for NBC's Law & Order
2. Adrien Brody for Epix's Chapelwaite
3. Christopher Meloni for NBC's Law & Order: Organized Crime
4. Anson Mount and Ethan Peck for Paramount+'s Star Trek: Strange New Worlds
5. Joseph Sikora for Starz's Power Book IV: Force
6. Titus Welliver for Freevee's Bosch: Legacy
7. Lee Pace for AppleTV+'s Foundation
8. Patrick Stewart for Paramount+'s Star Trek: Picard
9. Harold Perrineau for Epix's From
10. Alan Ritchson for Amazon's Reacher
11. Pablo Schreiber for Paramount+'s Halo
12. Henry Cavill for Netflix's The Witcher

The nominations for The 74th Primetime Emmy Awards will be announced on Tuesday, July 12.