Emmy Predictions 2025 - Who Will Likely Be Nominated for Lead Actor in a Drama Series?

From June 12 to 23, 2025, voting is taking place for The 77th Primetime Emmy Awards. As such, it's fun to look at which actors and shows have the best chances of actually being nominated this year. So, these are my predictions for which performers will be nominated for Lead Actor in a Drama Series.

Performers most likely to be nominated:

1. Noah Wyle for Max's The Pitt
2. Adam Scott for AppleTV+'s Severance
3. Gary Oldman for AppleTV+'s Slow Horses
4. Pedro Pascal for HBO's The Last of Us
5. Jon Hamm for AppleTV+'s Your Friends & Neighbors
6. Eddie Redmayne for Peacock's The Day of the Jackal

Serious threats that could break through:

1. Lee Jung-jae for Netflix's Squid Game
2. Sterling K. Brown for Hulu's Paradise
3. Diego Luna for Disney+'s Andor
4. Matthew Goode for Netflix's Dept. Q
5. Michael Fassbender for Showtime's The Agency
6. Rufus Sewell for Netflix's The Diplomat
7. Billy Bob Thornton for Paramount+'s Landman
8. Luke Newton for Netflix's Bridgerton
9. Jeff Bridges for FX's The Old Man
10. Zahn McClarnon for AMC's Dark Winds

Some considerable long-shots:

1. Mark Rylance for PBS' Wolf Hall: The Mirror and the Light
2. Courtney B. Vance for FX's Grotesquerie
3. Harry Lawtey for HBO's Industry
4. Gabriel Basso for Netflix's The Night Agent
5. Jacob Anderson for AMC's Interview With the Vampire
6. Jin Ha and Lee Minho for AppleTV+'s Pachinko
7. Ncuti Gatwa for Disney+'s Doctor Who
8. Pierce Brosnan and Tom Hardy for Paramount+'s MobLand
9. Patrick Gibson for Showtime's Dexter: Original Sin
10. Harrison Ford for Paramount+'s 1923
11. Travis Fimmel for HBO's Dune: Prophecy

Colorful oddities that still have an outside chance:

1. Peter Krause for ABC's 9-1-1
2. Charlie Cox for Disney+'s Daredevil: Born Again
3. Penn Badgley for Netflix's You
4. Joel Edgerton for AppleTV+'s Dark Matter
5. Aldis Hodge for Prime Video's Cross
6. Michael Cooper Jr. for Netflix's Forever
7. Mike Colter and Aasif Mandvi for Paramount+'s Evil
8. Manuel Garcia-Rulfo for Netflix's The Lincoln Lawyer
9. Dennis Quaid for Paramount+'s Happy Face
10. Sam Heughan for Starz's The Couple Next Door

The nominations for The 77th Primetime Emmy Awards will be announced on Tuesday, July 15. The winners will be awarded in a ceremony airing on CBS and Paramount+ and hosted by stand-up comedian Nate Bargatze on Sunday, September 14.