Emmy Predictions 2026 - Who Will Likely Be Nominated for Lead Actor in a Drama Series?

From June 11 to 22, 2026, voting is taking place for The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards. As such, it's fun to look at which actors and shows have the best chances of actually being nominated this year. So, these are my predictions for which performers will be nominated for Lead Actor in a Drama Series.

Performers most likely to be nominated:

1. Noah Wyle for HBO Max's The Pitt
2. Sterling K. Brown for Hulu's Paradise
3. Mark Ruffalo for HBO's Task
4. Gary Oldman for Apple TV's Slow Horses
5. Walton Goggins for Prime Video's Fallout

Serious threats that could break through:

1. Billy Bob Thornton for Paramount+'s Landman
2. Jon Hamm for Apple TV's Your Friends & Neighbors
3. Idris Elba for Apple TV's Hijack
4. Rufus Sewell for Netflix's The Diplomat
5. Tom Hiddleston for Prime Video's The Night Manager
6. Peter Claffey for HBO's A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms
7. Lee Jung-jae for Netflix's Squid Game
8. Billy Magnussen for AMC's The Audacity
9. Morgan Spector for HBO's The Gilded Age

Some considerable long-shots:

1. Michael C. Hall for Showtime's Dexter: Resurrection
2. Alfred Molina for Netflix's The Boroughs
3. Antony Starr, Karl Urban and Jack Quaid for Prime Video's The Boys
4. Evan Peters for FX's The Beauty
5. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II for Netflix's Man on Fire
6. Aaron Moten for Prime Video's Fallout
7. Luke Thompson for Netflix's Bridgerton
8. Luke Grimes for CBS' Marshals
9. Zahn McClarnon for AMC's Dark Winds

Colorful oddities that still have an outside chance:

1. Kurt Russell for Apple TV's Monarch: Legacy of Monsters
2. Scott Speedman for ABC's RJ Decker
3. Taron Egerton for Apple TV's Smoke
4. Patrick Dempsey for FOX's Memory of a Killer
5. Jovan Adepo for HBO's IT: Welcome to Derry
6. Sam Heughan for Starz's Outlander
7. Anson Mount for Paramount+'s Star Trek: Strange New Worlds
8. Charlie Cox for Disney+'s Daredevil: Born Again

The nominations for The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards will be announced on Tuesday, July 8. The winners will be awarded in a ceremony broadcast on NBC on Monday, September 14.