Emmy Predictions 2026 - Who Will Likely Be Nominated for Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie?

From June 11 to 22, 2026, voting is taking place for The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards. As such, it's fun to look at which actors and shows have the best chances of actually being nominated this year. So, these are my predictions for which performers will be nominated for Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie.

Performers most likely to be nominated:

1. Oscar Isaac for Netflix's Beef
2. Matthew Rhys for Netflix's The Beast in Me
3. Jamie Bell for HBO's Half Man
4. Charlie Hunnam for Netflix's Monster: The Ed Gein Story
5. Paul Anthony Kelly for FX's Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette

Serious threats that could break through:

1. Jason Bateman and Jude Law for Netflix's Black Rabbit
2. Michael Shannon and Matthew Macfadyen for Netflix's Death by Lightning
3. Riz Ahmed for Prime Video's Bait
4. Mitchell Robertson for HBO's Half Man
5. Lewis Pullman for Netflix's Remarkably Bright Creatures
6. Jon Bernthal for Netflix's His & Hers

Some considerable long-shots:

1. Jason Clarke for Hulu's Murdaugh: Death in the Family
2. Michael Chernus for Peacock's Devil in Disguise: John Wayne Gacy
3. Andrew Rannells for HBO's Miss You, Love You
4. Winston Sawyers for Netflix's Lord of the Flies
5. Jason Momoa for Apple TV's Chief of War
6. Cooper Raiff for Mubi's Hal & Harper

Colorful oddities that still have an outside chance:

1. Michael Sheen and David Tennant for Prime Video's Good Omens
2. Leo Woodall for Netflix's Vladimir
3. James Marsden and Vince Vaughn for Hulu's Mike & Nick & Nick & Alice
4. Avan Jogia for Prime Video's 56 Days
5. Ernest Kingsley Jr. for Hulu's Washington Black
6. John Krasinski for Prime Video's Jack Ryan: Ghost War

The nominations for The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards will be announced on Tuesday, July 8. The winners will be awarded in a ceremony broadcast on NBC on Monday, September 14.