Wednesday, August 31, 2016

Emmy Predictions 2016 - Who Will Likely Win for Supporting Actor in a Drama Series?

The nominations are in for The 68th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards. The final round of voting is now taking place. So now, it's time to speculate on who is likely to win in each major category. Next up for analysis is Supporting Actor in a Drama Series.

The Nominees:
  • Jonathan Banks for AMC's Better Call Saul - Episode: "Bali Ha'i"
  • Peter Dinklage for HBO's Game of Thrones - Episode: "No One"
  • Kit Harington for HBO's Game of Thrones - Episode: "Battle of the Bastards"
  • Michael Kelly for Netflix's House of Cards - Episode: "Chapter 44"
  • Ben Mendelsohn for Netflix's Bloodline - Episode: "Part 23"
  • Jon Voight for Showtime's Ray Donovan - Episode: "The Kalamazoo"

The race for Supporting Drama Actor is one of the few categories I'm not particularly excited about. I attribute that to Better Call Saul being the only show in this field that I watched this past year. I know it's unbelievable that I don't watch Game of Thrones. But I still haven't found the time - and probably won't given the onslaught of new shows premiering over the next few months. Meanwhile, House of Cards lost me after two seasons, it was slog just to get through one year of Bloodline, and Ray Donovan was too unbearable and cliche to make it through one episode. So, I may not be the best to judge this category this year. If it was up to me, Jonathan Banks would win because he continued to deliver an amazing performance. But none of this is up to me. I have to look at the race from a more logical and objective perspective that takes all of the nominees as serious contenders.

In that regard, this category really could be a race between the two guys of Game of Thrones. Dinklage is a two-time winner in this field. This used to be the category known for rewarding a new winner every year. But Dinklage and Aaron Paul (for Breaking Bad) broke that trend over the last few years. So, Dinklage could once again prevail here - especially if he's just become the rubber stamp Game of Thrones victory. The fantasy drama will win elsewhere. Dinklage no longer has to be the sole beneficiary from the Emmy voters. Plus, this didn't really seem to be a noteworthy season about him. Kit Harington got much more of the buzz and conversation. For an entire year, he got the press about whether or not his character was alive. That continued throughout the season as well as story after story noted just what Jon Snow was up to. This is his first nomination. So, the voters have absolutely noticed. Perhaps they've noticed enough to actually give him the award too. Plus, I've heard that Harington has a much better episode submission than Dinklage - though poor episodes haven't hurt Dinklage in the past.

Of course, Banks could be a threat to win as well. He has another solid episode submission. One of these days he needs to win for this role. It's just something that needs to happen. It could be this year. Or it could not. He can't be counted out of this race like the other three nominees. I'm sure Michael Kelly, Ben Mendelsohn and Jon Voight had fine material this year. But the support doesn't seem behind them to propel them to victory. Mendelsohn's performance was one of the few reasons I kept watching Bloodline. But it's a role in a very diminished capacity in the second season. It was a surprise to me when he got nominated again. So, a victory seems unlikely. It's a show of support that Voight fell off this list and was able to come back. That shows that there may be growing support amongst the voters for Ray Donovan. It's a show that no one really talks about though. It could pull off a victory somewhere. I just don't see it happening here. The same goes for House of Cards. A show voters really like and will probably win something. But Supporting Actor for Kelly? It seems unlikely.

Should Win: Jonathan Banks
Will Win: Peter Dinklage
Dark Horse: Kit Harington