Tuesday, September 6, 2016

Emmy Predictions 2016 - Who Will Likely Win for Guest Actress in a Drama Series?

The nominations are in for The 68th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards. The final round of voting has occurred. So now, it's time to speculate on who is likely to win in each major category. Next up for analysis is Guest Actress in a Drama Series.

The Nominees:
  • Ellen Burstyn for Netflix's House of Cards - Episode: "Chapter 41"
  • Allison Janney for Showtime's Masters of Sex - Episode: "Matters of Gravity"
  • Margo Martindale for FX's The Americans - Episode: "The Magic of David Copperfield V: The Statue of Liberty Disappears"
  • Laurie Metcalf for Louis C.K.'s Horace and Pete - Episode: "Episode 3"
  • Molly Parker for Netflix's House of Cards - Episode: "Chapter 45"
  • Carrie Preston for CBS' The Good Wife - Episode: "Targets"

If there is any justice in this world at all, Laurie Metcalf would win an Emmy for her transcendent work on Louis C.K.'s web series Horace and Pete. It's one of the best performances of the entire year across every show. It's just that good. It's an episode almost entirely shot in close-up of her as she tells a wickedly funny but truly heartbreaking story about falling in love with an older man and potentially breaking apart her family. In a year of great performance, Metcalf clearly rose above everyone else. Emmy voters seem to agree as well. She's a triple acting nominee this year. She's also up for Lead Comedy Actress (HBO's Getting On) and Guest Comedy Actress (CBS' The Big Bang Theory). So everyone seems to agree that this was the year of Metcalf domination. She will surely win somewhere. A win here would reward her best performance.

Of course, Horace and Pete didn't get a whole lot of Emmy love. Metcalf was the only actor to get nominated. That seems crazy given the caliber of actor on the show - including Steve Buscemi, Edie Falco, Jessica Lange and Alan Alda. It was an insanely talented cast in a show that was thought-provoking and genre-bending. But it was a hard ask for Emmy voters to wildly support it. It was just a small show that C.K. financed himself that he sold on his website. It's a miracle it got any nominations at all! Fortunately, Metcalf did get nominated. She beat the odds and got into this field.

And yet, Metcalf is facing off against some seriously talented competition. The last three winners are all nominated again for the same roles - 2013's Carrie Preston, 2014's Allison Janney and 2015's Margo Martindale. They are favorites amongst the voters just as much as Metcalf is. So, this isn't a lock for her. It's a really competitive race. Martindale surprised everyone with a win last year despite only a two-minute scene. That's roughly the same as what she has this year too. But now, the voters love The Americans even more. So, she could easily repeat. Meanwhile, Preston has played a beloved character on The Good Wife. That's a show the voters love and probably want to give it some award for its final season. It could go to Preston. And then, Janney continues to be the sole nomination for Masters of Sex. However, it continues to be a great role for her even though the most recent season was pretty lackluster. She could win as well.

Plus, the House of Cards ladies are contenders as well. Categories with multiple nominees show strong support for that show. House of Cards has two nominations here and three over in Guest Actor. That means they all have a credible shot at the trophy. More importantly, one of the nominees is Ellen Burstyn. She's beloved by the Emmy voters. She has won for big roles but she has also won for small roles. So, this part could just add to her collection of awards. And finally, Molly Parker has always been a bright spot on any ensemble she is in. I was still watching the show when she joined and she was good on it. I'm sure she had some interesting material to work with this year. So, she's a possibility as well. I would love for Metcalf to win for a great performance but this race is just too competitive right now to discount her fellow nominees.

Should Win: Laurie Metcalf
Will Win: Laurie Metcalf
Dark Horse: Ellen Burstyn