Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Emmy Predictions 2016 - Which Program Will Likely Win for Outstanding Television Movie?

The nominations are in for The 68th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards. The final round of voting has occurred. So now, it's time to speculate on who is likely to win in each major category. Next up for analysis is Outstanding Television Movie.

The Nominees:
  • HBO's All the Way
  • HBO's Confirmation
  • BBC America's Luther
  • PBS' Sherlock: The Abominable Bride
  • Netflix's A Very Murray Christmas

An HBO movie has won 19 times in this category in the 35 times it has been included in the Emmy ceremony. That's more than triple the network in second place. So, it's fair to say that HBO has quite the domination in this category. Too Much TV hasn't really changed a whole lot with TV movies either. The expansion of content providers has done very well for the limited series field. It's because of that expansion of quality products that the miniseries and movies category was split into two a couple of years ago. But HBO is still the dominating force when it comes to TV movies. Netflix is making some expansions in this genre as well. But nothing that has made a major impact in this field. So once again, we should be expecting an HBO win in this category.

The question then becomes: do voters choose All the Way or Confirmation? Based on total nomination tallies, it would seem that All the Way has more support amongst the voters. All the Way got 4 nods while Confirmation only got 2. Those total nomination figures aren't that high and don't show broad support for these projects. Overall, limited series outshone movies quite a bit this year. But four nominations is all it really takes for All the Way to be seen as the frontrunner in this race. Of course, All the Way didn't win anything at the Creative Arts Emmys over the weekend. It was only up for one award - prosthetic makeup - but that felt like a category it could have won. Because it didn't, it may suggest a loss here. It's unlikely but could happen.

Sherlock: The Abominable Bride actually managed to picked up an award at the Creative Arts ceremony though. It prevailed in special effects in a supporting role. That was a surprising win. And let's not forget that Sherlock has a history of being a surprising winner. The last time it was up for awards it was up against The Normal Heart and seemed to be winning in every category. Of course, The Abominable Bride doesn't have quite the same support this year. But an upset is clearly possible. And unlikely previous years, Sherlock actually belongs in this category. The cheating it did to be considered in years past could have been off-putting to some voters. But now because it belongs here, voters could be more willing to accept it. It probably has stronger odds than Confirmation to take down All the Way.

Should Win: All the Way
Will Win: All the Way
Dark Horse: Sherlock: The Abominable Bride