Wednesday, August 16, 2017

Emmy Predictions 2017 - Who Will Likely Win for Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or TV Movie?

The nominations are in for The 69th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards. The final round of voting is happening now. So, it's time to speculate on who is likely to win in each major category. Next up for analysis is Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or TV Movie.

The Nominees:
  • Bill Camp for HBO's The Night Of - "Subtle Beast"
  • Alfred Molina for FX's Feud: Bette and Joan - "Pilot"
  • Alexander Skarsgård for HBO's Big Little Lies - "Living the Dream"
  • David Thewlis for FX's Fargo - "The Narrow Escape Problem"
  • Stanley Tucci for FX's Feud: Bette and Joan - "Pilot"
  • Michael K. Williams for HBO's The Night Of - "The Art of War"

Once again, it feels like a case could be made for every nominee in this category to win. The co-stars of Feud and The Night Of have the benefit of two nominees in the field while David Thewlis and Alexander Skarsgård got a ton of acclaim for their performances on their respective series. This race could be an indicator early on if it's going to be a good night for either Feud or Big Little Lies. They are battling it out in all of the major categories. Or it could serve as a way to reward the other show to make sure that they got a win somewhere on Emmy night. All of these performances are very deserving as well. I would be happy with any way the voters decide to go. Sure, I have preferences. But I can make a reasonable argument for everyone as well. No one stands out as undeserving.

Of course, it needs to be noted that for some reason both Alfred Molina and Stanley Tucci submitted the pilot episode of Feud. Having multiple nominees in a category can be a very good thing for the voters who are actually watching the tapes. Of course, given the new voting rules, we just don't have any idea how many are actually doing that. But it can be a benefit for a nominee to be seen in two episodes of the six required to view for the voting. So two co-stars choosing the same episode can ultimately hurt them. It means there is only five required hours to watch in this field. Now, both Molina and Tucci were great in Feud. I could even argue that Tucci is a frontrunner in this race because of his stature as a film actor playing a legendary Hollywood figure in an anthology series from Ryan Murphy. That seems like a strong winning combination. But Molina also has solid odds because he actually had more to do in the actual show.

Meanwhile, Bill Camp and Michael K. Williams smartly knew that it could be beneficial not to submit the same episode. However, Camp chose an episode where Williams didn't appear in at all. So, this strategy will more than likely give him the edge over his co-star. He would definitely be my preference between the two of them - largely because I had some problems with Williams' character arc and how it was too condensed. But The Night Of wasn't as big and showy in its story and performances as the other shows in this category. It was a drama that understood subtlety and how the situations affected people over a long period of time. It was fascinating and still led to great acting moments. But they aren't the type of performances Emmy voters tend to reward.

Conversely, both Skarsgård and Thewlis had big acting moments playing memorable characters who weren't easy to like at all. Skarsgård was quite villainous while Thewlis was over-the-top devious. Both were strong performances that were lifted up by great writing. I honestly think it should be a race between the two of them for the top prize. But Fargo hasn't had a great track record at the Emmys for its actors. No one from the cast of the first two seasons has actually won. That's a surprising statistic that is actually true. So, Skarsgård could have the edge because David E. Kelley has a strong portfolio of writing Emmy-winning roles for performers. Big Little Lies could win big when it comes to acting while Fargo and Feud sweep the technical and series prizes. Or the reverse could be true. Again, there are so many different outcomes that would all feel justified in the end.

Should Win: David Thewlis
Will Win: Stanley Tucci
Dark Horse: Alexander Skarsgård