Thursday, July 26, 2018

Emmy Predictions 2018 - Which Program Will and Should Win for Reality Competition Series?

The nominations are in for The 70th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards. So now, it's time to speculate on who will and should win in each major category. First up for analysis is Reality Competition Program.

The Nominees Ranked By Which Program Should Win:
  1. VH1's RuPaul's Drag Race
  2. NBC's American Ninja Warrior
  3. CBS' The Amazing Race
  4. NBC's The Voice
  5. Bravo's Top Chef
  6. Lifetime's Project Runway

Right off the bat, I have to say that my viewing of reality shows has really tapered off in recent years. It seems to be the biggest decline in my viewing schedule in the era of Peak TV. There is just too much scripted programming out there for me to also keep up with what is going on in the unscripted reality world. As such, I'm mostly just rooting for the relative newcomers in this race. Yes, RuPaul's Drag Race and American Ninja Warrior have been nominated previously. But they aren't the veterans of this category like the other four. As such, that does give them the perception of being underdogs. And a come from behind victory is always an amazing narrative and outcome to get behind. Plus, I've frankly just heard more about RuPaul's Drag Race in the last year than any of the other five programs - though that may also just be the social circles I run in on Twitter and Facebook.

The Nominees Ranked by Which Program Will Win:
  1. NBC's The Voice
  2. CBS' The Amazing Race
  3. Bravo's Top Chef
  4. VH1's RuPaul's Drag Race
  5. NBC's American Ninja Warrior
  6. Lifetime's Project Runway

Since this category was created in 2003, only three programs have won the award - 10 wins for The Amazing Race, 4 wins for The Voice and one win for Top Chef. As such, the odds are high that the winner will be a repeat from one of those three. In fact, four out of the last five years it has gone to The Voice. As such, it's easy to predict it as emerging victorious here once more. It's not exciting. But it is the expected outcome. If not that singing competition, then The Amazing Race. Those two just have the track records that can't be ignored. Sure, it would be great for RuPaul's Drag Race to pull off a surprise win. It's definitely been gaining traction with Emmy voters over the last few years. I just don't see it pulling off a victory just yet. In fact, it still seems doubtful that Top Chef will ever prevail again. The year it won may have truly just been a fluke. It's still getting nominations though which has to count for something given the competition on the ballot.

What do you think? Do you agree or disagree with my predictions? Let me know in the comments below!