Emmy Predictions 2025 - Who Will Likely Be Nominated for Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie?

From June 12 to 23, 2025, voting is taking place for The 77th Primetime Emmy Awards. As such, it's fun to look at which actors and shows have the best chances of actually being nominated this year. So, these are my predictions for which performers will be nominated for Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie.

Performers most likely to be nominated:

1. Stephen Graham for Netflix's Adolescence
2. Colin Farrell for HBO's The Penguin
3. Cooper Koch for Netflix's Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story
4. Nicholas Alexander Chavez for Netflix's Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story
5. Brian Tyree Henry for AppleTV+'s Dope Thief

Serious threats that could break through:

1. Jake Gyllenhaal for AppleTV+'s Presumed Innocent
2. Paul Giamatti and Chris O'Dowd for Netflix's Black Mirror
3. Steve Carell for HBO's Mountainhead
4. Kevin Kline for AppleTV+'s Disclaimer
5. Robert De Niro for Netflix's Zero Day
6. Kevin Bacon for Netflix's Sirens

Some considerable long-shots:

1. Kevin Hart for Peacock's Fight Night: The Million Dollar Heist
2. Michael Sheen for Prime Video's A Very Royal Scandal
3. Colman Domingo for Netflix's The Madness
4. Gael García Bernal for Hulu's La Máquina
5. Billy Crystal for AppleTV+'s Before
6. Josh Andrés Rivera for FX's American Sports Story: Aaron Hernandez

Colorful oddities that still have an outside chance:

1. Colin Firth for Peacock's Lockerbie: A Search for Truth
2. Laurence Fishburne for FX's Clipped
3. Taylor Kitsch for Netflix's American Primeval
4. André Holland for AppleTV+'s The Big Cigar
5. Jimmy O. Yang for Hulu's Interior Chinatown
6. Jacob Elordi for Prime Video's The Narrow Road to the Deep North
7. Joe Dempsie for HBO's Get Millie Black

The nominations for The 77th Primetime Emmy Awards will be announced on Tuesday, July 15. The winners will be awarded in a ceremony airing on CBS and Paramount+ and hosted by stand-up comedian Nate Bargatze on Sunday, September 14.