Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Emmy Predictions 2016 - Who Will Likely Win for Directing for a Limited Series, Movie or Dramatic Special?

The nominations are in for The 68th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards. The final round of voting is now taking place. So now, it's time to speculate on who is likely to win in each major category. Next up for analysis is Directing for a Limited Series, Movie or Dramatic Special.

The Nominees:
  • Susanne Bier for AMC's The Night Manager
  • Noah Hawley for FX's Fargo - Episode: "Before the Law"
  • Anthony Hemingway for FX's The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story - Episode "Manna From Heaven"
  • Ryan Murphy for FX's The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story - Episode: "From the Ashes of Tragedy"
  • Jay Roach for HBO's All the Way
  • John Singleton for FX's The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story - Episode: "The Race Card"

As I've worked my way through the Limited Series categories at this year's Emmy, it has become apparent that FX's The People v. O.J. Simpson is a frontrunner in almost every race. That's what happens when a series gets multiple nominations in so many categories. It shows vast support amongst the voters. All of it is rightfully delivered praise as well. It may become monotonous come awards night if The People v. O.J. Simpson wins every award in the middle of the ceremony. But again, it's all deserved. It's just unfortunate that it comes at the expense of so many great limited series that aired over the past year. It serves no purpose to continue complaining about the great limited shows that didn't even get nominated in the major races. But now, it's a struggle to figure out which awards stuff like Fargo, All the Way and The Night Manager can win. They deserve to win something. It's just been difficult to pinpoint where they are must prime for such success.

I bring this up because the Directing field is yet another category where The People v. O.J. Simpson has three nominations. They all deserve their spots on this list as well. Ryan Murphy is most likely the frontrunner in this race because he set the template for the fantastic visual style of the anthology drama. He really proved that he can rein in it a little bit while still doing the flash and spectacle in a new way. Premieres and finales are the likely beneficiaries in the writing and directing fields when there's more than one nominee from the show. So while, John Singleton and Anthony Hemingway have some terrific episodes of the show. It seems much more likely that Murphy would prevail if someone from the FX series wins here.

And yet, I'm not sure that The People v. O.J. Simpson will win here. Murphy has failed to win in this category despite being nominated for the past two years - for HBO's The Normal Heart and FX's American Horror Story: Freak Show. This may be the race where The Night Manager is able to sneak in for a major victory. Some issues in the structuring of the story may keep it from winning for writing. But throughout the entire run, it looked absolutely fantastic. It was so beautiful to watch. All of that is because of Susanne Bier's terrific direction. She really brought that project alive. Moreover, we can't count out Noah Hawley or Jay Roach either. Hawley's episode of Fargo probably wasn't the best episode of the season in terms of direction. But he got the nomination because he's the helmer of the entire anthology series. Meanwhile, Roach has emerged victorious in this category with his last two nominations for HBO projects - 2008's Recount and 2012's Game Change. So every option has to be taken seriously in this race.

Should Win: Susanne Bier
Will Win: Ryan Murphy
Dark Horse: Jay Roach