Thursday, August 17, 2017

Emmys Predictions 2017 - Who Will Likely Win for Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or TV Movie?

The nominations are in for The 69th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards. The final round of voting is happening now. So, it's time to speculate on who is likely to win in each major category. Next up for analysis is Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or TV Movie.

The Nominees:
  • Judy Davis for FX's Feud: Bette and Joan - "And the Winner Is... (The Oscars of 1963)"
  • Laura Dern for HBO's Big Little Lies - "Once Bitten"
  • Jackie Hoffman for FX's Feud: Bette and Joan - "More, or Less"
  • Regina King for ABC's American Crime - "Episode Three"
  • Michelle Pfeiffer for HBO's The Wizard of Lies
  • Shailene Woodley for HBO's Big Little Lies - "Push Comes to Shove"

Regina King is the two-time reigning champion in this category for American Crime. Both times she was severely underestimated in this race as well. That won't happen a third time. Of course, there's a bit of category fraud going on as well because she was much more of a lead than supporting in the third season of American Crime. But it was much more likely that she would continue to get nominated here than in that crowded category - especially alongside her equally deserving co-star Felicity Huffman. So, she has a very active role on her show this season. The narrative was more expansive than before and some story arcs had to be compressed. But hers was largely consistent. It was brutal and tragic but King was once again phenomenal to watch. It wouldn't be surprising if she ultimately walked away with the trophy for the third straight year.

Of course, the ladies of Feud and Big Little Lies will put up quite a fight. Michelle Pfeiffer could be a reasonable contender as well. She seems to be having a bit of a career resurgence at the moment - which is very nice to see. And yet, I still don't think The Wizard of Lies has the buzz to actually pull off a win in any of its categories. So, Pfeiffer is probably the least likely to win here. That's a statement I don't want to make because she's a stellar actress. It's just more likely that the voters will reward the other five contenders instead of her given the roles and shows they are on.

Plus, Feud and Big Little Lies both have two nominees in this category. And none of them submitted the same episode. So, there is a lot of time for all four of them to actually be seen in their respective shows. It was a pleasant surprise on nomination morning to see Jackie Hoffman included in this list. Judy Davis has the far flashier role as famed gossip columnist Hedda Hopper. And yet, Hoffman's character brought the heart and soul to the Joan Crawford corner of the story. The two performances are quite different. While it's nice to see Hoffman included, it's much more likely that Davis prevails because voters love inside showbiz stories and actors playing famous people. Plus, her submission episode is one of the best hours of TV this year.

And yet, both Laura Dern and Shailene Woodley could upset as well. Woodley was positioned more as the third lead of Big Little Lies with it being unclear if she should go lead or supporting for awards consideration. It worked out well for her as a supporting actress. She had a strong and grounded story to work with as well. However, Dern seems more likely to win out of the two of them simply because of her stature in the industry. This has proven to be a huge year for her - between Big Little Lies, Twin Peaks and the upcoming Star Wars. An Emmy win could cement this as the year of Laura Dern. And there is absolutely nothing wrong with that!

Should Win: Judy Davis
Will Win: Regina King
Dark Horse: Laura Dern